GBD 2017: Fertility, Mortality, Migration, and Population Scenarios for 195 Countries and Territories From 2017 to 2100
2020
This article from The Lancet seeks to understand patterns in future population levels to plan for changes in population age structure, anticipate resource needs in health care settings, and to examine the potential impacts on the environment and economy using data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study 2017. The future population estimates were modeled using fertility, migration, and mortality rates. The global total fertility rate is forecasted to be 1.66 in 2100, with the global population estimated to peak at 9.72 billion in 2064 and subsequently decline to 8.79 billion in 2100. An estimated 151 countries will have fertility levels less than total replacement fertility by 2050, with the number rising to 183 countries by 2100. The top five largest countries in 2100 will be India, Nigeria, China, the USA, and Pakistan. The forecast also indicated that there will be a significant shift in global age structure, where 2.37 billion people will be 65 or older and 1.70 billion people will be younger than 20. The authors anticipate that a sustained total fertility rate lower than replacement fertility will have economic, social, environmental, and geopolitical consequences.
Led by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington, GBD is a global effort with researchers from over 150 countries and territories. IHME and other partnering organizations have developed numerous resources to disseminate and visualize the findings of the GBD studies, data visualizations and interactives, country profiles, policy reports, research articles, infographics, and the GBD Results Tool, which allows users to search GBD data.
Source:
Vollset S et al. Fertility, Mortality, Migration, and Population Scenarios for 195 Countries and Territories From 2017 to 2100: A Forecasting Analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study. The Lancet 2020; 1-22. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(20)30677-2.